Transcript - Paul Gibbons Video
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i have to say
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i am really honored to be part of this
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and
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i mean that you know i come from the
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united states and
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and people say stuff like that and it
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usually means the opposite
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but anyway so it sounds like a
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politician thing to say doesn't it i'm
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honored to be here
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what a privilege and all that but i
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really mean this is so
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important because as we hear more and
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more in the business world
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about having businesses which are
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two-speed
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to have a core internal stable business
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and
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running more of our businesses like
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projects on the outside
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and as projects become increasingly part
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of our life for better for worse that's
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the way the world is right now
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the fact that they still fail 20 30 40
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50 60 70
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of the time is a horrifying thing if you
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think about where the risk is in a
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business
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and if you think about where the
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opportunity is in a business lies in
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projects a lot right
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a lot and how you're trying to change
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them so we need to do well and
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one of the things that is terrific about
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half double coming out
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is it's something that in a way steals
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march
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on agile which is all over the united
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states
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imperfectly and only partially taken up
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in the united states we talk a lot about
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agile you go work inside of business
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and it's still really kind of the old
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waterfally thing
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for real so we have something here
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that's distinctively european
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distinctively danish a country
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known as far as i know only for two
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things famous physicists
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and hugo what you could do well this is
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something that's really important
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and it's important because in a sense
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because the prosperity of your country
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is going to depend on the prosperity of
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your businesses that's an obviously
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stupidly obvious thing to say
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but also the proof of the european model
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the proof of european social democracy
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the
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proof that we can have capitalism in the
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world but we can still be compassionate
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we can still care for the environment
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these are all things that matter to me
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personally it's not too ideological or
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too political to say so
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so that's why i'm really happy happy to
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be here
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i got into change management in 1993
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i know that we share a story we share a
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similar story
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i did a project for barclays bank in
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england
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i was a new consultant i was 33 years
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old had a new nice new suit and a nice
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red tie
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nice briefcase and we went and we wrote
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a report
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we charged them 1.6 million pounds 2
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million dollars for our reports big
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report
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it's like nine months work and we talked
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to everybody in the business with this
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report
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the business unit heads the board the
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chairman chief executive
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all the stakeholders all the powerpoints
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lies all the engagement
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all the enthusiasm all the inspiration
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in the world nothing
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happened with that report nothing
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happened
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they did nothing they didn't like it
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it's not that they didn't agree
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they paid the fee of 2 million but
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nothing happened no change happened
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so i thought to myself i was a young
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idealistic consultant like many of you
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sitting in the audience to think when
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are they going to blow the whistle on us
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are we really going to end up not in
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jail for charging these guys 2 million
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dollars
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for telling them what to do and then
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walking away and saying good luck with
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that
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hope it works out for you which is what
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we did which was a model of consulting
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in the 1990s
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so i became fascinated by change
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management and
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when i retrained myself i took courses
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in two different disciplines
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two different sides of this chasm
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project management one language
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time cost quality one set of tools
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microsoft project same remember that
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gantt charts
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excel spreadsheets all that stuff right
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and the other side change management we
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were talking about people
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and feelings and involvement and
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participation and well
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right and this is like two different
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worlds right
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but they didn't really interact which i
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thought you know even then was a bizarre
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thing
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so i retrained myself in these
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disciplines i began to study change
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management and then
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another famous danish scholar whose name
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is bent flav
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bjerg is that right at oxford how's that
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pronunciation okay
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oh i couldn't say that in a million
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years
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my mouth won't do that um it talks about
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project overruns
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and how for some of these biggest ones
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these are from the united states and
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from great britain
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but we have plenty examples all over the
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world about how much it costs us when
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projects go badly
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so that's one of the chasms so here's
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another chasm
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as i went out to write this yellow book
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i was reading a lot about behavioral
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science
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how many people have read a book called
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nudge
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how many people have read a book called
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thinking fast and slow
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predictably irrational some of these
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other
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great great books anti-fragiles another
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one
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that was written about 2012 2013.
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so i was writing this book on change
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management and i was reading all this
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cool stuff over here
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and it occurred to me at the time that
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nobody in the change management world
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was really doing any work on behavioral
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science okay so 2013 2014
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things changed a little bit so
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we look at these change management
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models
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we talked about from the 1940s
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through 2003
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and you know what there's no behavioral
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change in there
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now ask anybody who's worked on projects
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for a long time especially projects that
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have gone badly
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you'll say what went wrong and they say
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we didn't change behaviors it's just
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kind of a stupid thing to say right
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how can you have a project without
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changing behaviors how can you have a
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system
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that the users don't use right
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well we got the system in nobody uses it
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i mean you say that we joke about it now
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but we had a knowledge management system
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at pricewaterhousecoopers in the 1990s
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nobody used it nobody used it because it
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required consultants
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to put in their proposals and their
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project plans and their post-project
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evaluations
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and their project documentation they
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actually had to do the work to upload it
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into the system otherwise the system
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would be useless
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but we didn't want to change our
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behavior when the project was over we
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wanted to go on to the next thing
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or go home to see our wives and children
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so behaviors didn't change no one used
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the system and with something like a
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knowledge management system if nothing
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goes into it nothing comes out of it
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no knowledge comes out of it so it's a
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fairly standard complaint in project
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failure is that the behaviors don't
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change
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so if you look at this stuff here
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that i studied so lovingly
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for well i studied it for a few years
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and then i started to teach it
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there's no behavioral change built in
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there
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and one of the great discussions we had
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over here in the corner
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is change models as written a decade ago
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or two decades ago or three decades ago
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they weren't very good on behavioral
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change then and they're absolutely
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terrible
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in the context of today's businesses
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terrible terrible terrible
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harmful i would say modders such as
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cotters from harvard
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are positively harmful if you try and
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apply them
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in today's businesses the way they're
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run today with today's business
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challenges
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and so this is the big gap
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between what goes in up here our ideas
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our dreams our goals our aspirations
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our plans and our actions our behaviors
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this is a problem that's at the root of
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human happiness
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it's at the root of prosperous societies
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and it's at the root of business success
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is how do you line up that which is here
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with hands and behaviors does that make
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sense
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to some extent and i'll tell you what
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we're really bad at it
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so here's a quiz what percentage of
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heart attack victims
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change their diet exercise and smoking
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behaviors
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come on what do we see here
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30. we have a 30 higher
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lower 20 we have a 30 and 20.
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you guys are very generous to your
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fellow human beings you know that
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you're being very too kind anybody have
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another answer
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there's much lower there's seven percent
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now our own model of changes
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if it's rational it's a good idea
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you can make a case for it and it's
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emotional
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what are called two sides of the brain
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it's a metaphor it's not accurate but
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whatever
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you should want to change right so
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what's more emotional and more
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rational you know having a heart attack
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you've got pretty good reasons
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rationally
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and you just about left your loved ones
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behind it's pretty emotional
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seven percent behavioral change wow
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that's pretty weird right so something's
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wrong with our model
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for sure because it doesn't explain that
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what percentage of obese people
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say they want to lose weight okay i'm
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one we have one data point
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um so um what percentage of obese people
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say they want to lose weight 95
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right what percent achieve it in a given
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year five percent
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okay that's a pretty big gap right of
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those five percent one in 20
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who change what percent of it
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maintain it after a year about another
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five percent right
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fire obesity is the biggest problem
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today so
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these are the way it's terrible in
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business what percentage of change
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programs
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fail it depends what you mean by failure
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but if it's coming short of expectations
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if the change is sustainable if there's
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a cost overrun
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if we have to cancel the project there's
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a whole way of understanding that
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depends what you mean
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but it hovers around 40 30 to 50 percent
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somewhere in there
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depending on the kind of change culture
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change exceeds about 19
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of the time 19 of the time
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how often have you heard or read in a
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management book or
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heard a ceo talk about we have to change
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the culture
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oh my god okay here we go again right
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yeah
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almost never succeeds 20 of the time
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yeah but yet it's like
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something that you hear people say all
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the time right we have to change the
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culture we have to get the culture right
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we need this kind of culture we need a
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data science culture
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so very interesting so
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why does this happen
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and here's the model that is underlying
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all these change models that i showed
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you on the earlier slide
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is there's a two-step model of how we
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change behaviors
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step one change hearts and minds
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so you inspire people you educate them
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you convince them you persuade them you
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inspire
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what are some other good words for it
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you change what's inside here right
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and then this is where the miracle
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happens
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behaviors follow
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so how easy is it to change someone's
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mind
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hearts and mind that's not that easy to
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begin with right in fact there's
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something called the backfire effect
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you'll love this right a professor of
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public policy in american university
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the backfire effect if you provide
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someone who's a climate science denier
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with facts it's strengthens their
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opposition
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to climate science right and this
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happens all over it happens in politics
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and it happens all over provision of
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facts
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strengthens their opposition if they're
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ideologically committed it's called
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motivated reasoning
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yeah it's not really reasoning at all so
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reasoning and inverted commas
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so it's not very easy to do this but all
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over
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in our education system and in the way
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we run businesses and the way we run
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society
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we assume that if you change what's
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inside between
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the ears it will manifest itself and
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change in the real world
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it doesn't happen it's a fantasy so
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what's better than that
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we have in the 21st century this thing
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called behavioral science
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what does it suggest it says first of
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all we don't
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change our beliefs about the world
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according to what we
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see we change what we see
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according to our beliefs about the world
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you've heard the confirmation bias right
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in a way what we operate as
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as people running around like rats in
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the maze looking for reasons we're right
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about the world
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that's in fact the way you know
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perception biases work
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and so there's a whole family of things
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that are cognitive biases there's about
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100 of them on wikipedia they're very
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interesting very few people have thought
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about how
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cognitive biases affect decision making
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in business
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if you think about it's kind of strange
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right there's a collection of people
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they're making strategy decisions and
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operational decisions and marketing
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decisions and
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you know they're making decisions all
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the time very little work has been done
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on how cognitive biases skew those in
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stupid directions
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so that's one part and the second part
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is
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we have this idea about the world that
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our beliefs shape our actions
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but actually partly what happens is our
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actions shape our belief
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not only do how we act in the world
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shape what we're able to see and
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perceive in the world
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but also if you for example show people
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research
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on if you saw people research on
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climate science right in america climate
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science favors a famous example
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if they drive a big truck you know what
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they're less likely to believe it
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right in a sense the behavior is
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determining what they choose to believe
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about the world
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rather than their beliefs about the
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world determining their actions
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so it's a two-way street so that's
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behavioral science sort of
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in a very high level in a slide and what
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does that mean that means in all of our
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change models and that includes half
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double
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that includes however you're beginning
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to work you need some very
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practical tools from behavioral science
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to begin to work directly with behaviors
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so you don't have
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to rely on persuasion to change
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behaviors
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because it won't so
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there's a bunch of different tools and
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i'm going to give you one that i think
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i'm going to give you actually three
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three that i think are the best and the
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most fun and the most useful
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and this is stuff really i wrote this
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book in 2013.
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uh there's a 2019 edition of it
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this stuff was up to the minute when it
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was written
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so this stuff is hot hot off the press
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mindspace was developed by the
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behavioral insights team at the uk
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cabinet and mindspace is a framework for
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understanding behavioral change
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and influence and it's research based
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and they hired this guy from chicago who
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wrote
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one of them cast sunsteiner thaler that
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wrote nudge
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to become a consultant on it so this is
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quite a famous
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organization in the uk formerly
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european nation the uk um
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and so what are the elements of mind
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space messenger incentives
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norms default salience priming affect
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commitment ego so there's a lot of
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psychobabble up there it's a word what
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we call a word salad
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messenger who will people listen to
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sometimes it will be someone that's an
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authority but sometimes people want to
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listen to someone like me
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teenage mothers when you're talking
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about pregnancy prevention
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i actually prefer to talk to someone
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they can relate to who understand what
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it's like to be teenage mother right or
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what it's like to be a teen
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under the sort of pressures they
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experience so that's one example of
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thinking carefully when you're
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interested in behavioral change and
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influence about the messenger the second
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is incentives incentives don't work in
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the way that economists have thought
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they work for years sometimes no
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incentive is better than an
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incentive sometimes a big incentive
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works worse than a
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small incentive don't waste your money
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on a big incentive if a small one will
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work
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they work in very peculiar ways but
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let's think about the incentives
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there in the system norms what are the
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cultural norms
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are they on my side are they against me
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defaults what are the default settings
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for example
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in denmark you have an atrocious rate of
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organ donation
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seven percent apparently i'll show you a
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slide in a minute
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in austria it's 90 you know why why do
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you think
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are you more stingy with your organs
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than austria
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yeah bingo head of the class here
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you have to say and in the united states
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by the way you have to say go on take my
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kidneys my liver
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yeah you have to check opt-in in austria
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you have to opt out
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no no i don't want i don't want any
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touching my kidneys when i'm dead
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you have to actually say that so but if
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you think about how simple that changes
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and this is the amazing thing about
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behavioral science
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is that little tiny change from opt-in
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to opt-out produces a
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swing from about seven percent in
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denmark to about 90 in austria
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okay there can be cultural differences
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that explain it as well but if we look
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at the slide which i'll show you in a
17:37
minute
17:37
it's not all explained by culture so
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that's pretty interesting right
17:40
a little small change produces a huge
17:43
change in behavior
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so we have salience stories personal
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personal relevance affect emotion we
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have priming using cues in the
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environment we have
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affect commitment making having making
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public commitments
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and we have ego and identity i'm not the
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kind of person who
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or i am the kind of person who so these
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are triggers that you can use and you
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can use this very practically so this is
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super abstract sounding right
18:08
it is research based but you can
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actually set yourself up a checklist
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so at the beginning half double you have
18:16
the impact case right
18:18
and it's a cascade of goals down to
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behavioral goals
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and so you get down to behavioral goals
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you can say okay we're going to wait by
18:24
magic for these behavioral goals to
18:26
happen
18:26
okay what are we going to do we can set
18:28
kpis okay that's a good thing
18:30
what do kpis depend on well they depend
18:33
on the performance management system
18:35
right but we can do more than that and
18:37
we can do better than that you don't
18:38
want to rely on the performance
18:39
management system god help you right
18:41
you can think about okay we're
18:43
behavioral scientists now
18:45
let's use this checklist and think how
18:48
these can be supportive of the kind of
18:49
behavioral changes that are in our
18:51
impact case
18:54
we have in the behavioral science
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something called
18:58
the feast fun easy attractive social and
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timely let me show you some examples
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timely
19:08
so you can lecture people till they're
19:09
blue in the face about how they should
19:11
walk up two stairs and down one or down
19:13
two and up one or something like that
19:15
which is more effective that yeah
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that's funny right it's good
19:23
okay you can nag people about not
19:26
littering
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but you can make it fun not to litter
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ah here we go look at this little
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northern country on the left here
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holy sh what is that how did that happen
19:42
look at those countries where you have
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to opt out it's pretty cool right
19:46
that's a huge change
19:49
one of the things that my electricity
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company does in the united states
19:53
is they send me a letter once a month
19:54
saying this is how much energy you use
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this is how much your neighbors use this
20:00
is how much your efficient neighbors use
20:02
do you use this and do you get this in
20:03
denmark okay
20:05
so this is a nudge right in fact it's
20:07
one of the few ways
20:09
let's say denmark america is like two
20:11
decades behind
20:12
denmark and implementation of green tech
20:14
but this is something
20:16
and this changes behaviors look this is
20:18
one letter
20:19
it reduces energy usage by seven percent
20:23
seven percent in the united states
20:26
that's a lot of carbon dioxide right
20:28
a lot of fossil fuel one letter
20:32
once a month saying this is how your
20:34
energy use compares to your neighbors
20:37
seven percent reduction so when i say
20:39
that behavioral science produces huge
20:41
changes for really small interventions
20:44
i'm not kidding
20:45
right that is a lot of carbon saved for
20:48
a single letter
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this is something that's of concern
20:53
mostly i'll say to women in the audience
20:55
as well um is if you ever lived with men
20:58
you know that
20:59
accuracy can be a trouble this is
21:01
another example
21:02
of a nudge how does this work i don't
21:05
know
21:05
i almost certainly would have saved five
21:07
or six of my relationships in at least
21:08
one marriage
21:16
so we can't leave behavioral science
21:19
without talking about
21:21
habits those horrible things
21:24
hard to change it's hard to get good
21:27
ones and god knows we all have enough
21:28
bad ones right
21:30
so let's talk about
21:33
one of the misconceptions about habits
21:37
that they're about motivation okay so
21:39
get that out of your mind
21:41
motivation is not your friend when
21:44
motivation is a function of physical
21:47
arousal
21:48
you wake up some mornings right you
21:50
don't feel it you had a bad night's
21:52
sleep
21:53
you're tired you have jet lag your
21:55
motivation is a function of that arousal
21:57
right
21:58
clearly right physiologic physiological
22:00
and it's also a function of the
22:01
narrative
22:02
of the story that you're telling
22:04
yourself but your motivation
22:06
can be like this right you have days
22:08
when you feel really motivated
22:09
in days where you don't right
22:13
yeah so i used to live in a place in
22:16
america
22:17
it's kind of scandinavian place
22:19
wisconsin a lot of danes and swedes and
22:22
so forth there and you see people out
22:24
running when it's 25
22:25
minus 25 degrees they're out running and
22:28
i used to think to myself
22:30
what are they thinking how do they
22:32
motivate themselves
22:34
they don't they don't it's a habit
22:38
they don't every time they're going to
22:40
go out running look out the window and
22:42
go i wonder what the weather is oh minus
22:43
25.
22:44
oh oh you know they don't have that
22:47
debate with themselves
22:48
about their motivation they get their
22:50
shoes on they go out and run
22:52
and that's the way habits work is they
22:54
sit on top of motivation
22:57
so let's talk about some habits
23:00
meditation right how many people think i
23:02
should probably meditate
23:05
okay that's one of you okay so you all
23:07
need to read more
23:08
but um anyway so of all of the things
23:11
you can read in the psychology section
23:13
of the self-help section of your
23:15
bookstores you have that in denmark too
23:17
you're having california right you have
23:19
a self-help hex
23:20
a self-help bookstore in california size
23:22
of this room
23:24
and god knows they need it but um so
23:28
of all the things you can do meditation
23:29
is the one that reduces stress it
23:31
reduces mental illness it reduces
23:34
emotion control impulsivity decision
23:37
making creativity blah blah this is all
23:38
research based
23:39
right so all that that you see in
23:42
the
23:42
self-help section you can set that on
23:45
fire
23:46
and basically start meditating anyway
23:49
so a lot of people think they should
23:51
meditate more right so which is more
23:53
useful to you
23:53
if you were to meditate for an hour
23:57
on saturday or 10 minutes
24:01
six days a week which is better same
24:04
length of time
24:07
why is that
24:13
can you speak up can you speak up please
24:18
get the advantage of it in a wider range
24:21
instead of just
24:22
on that saturday okay cool
24:26
other idea yeah
24:35
what she said yeah
24:38
you have a habit you have a habit if i
24:41
can
24:41
do that for five minutes a day for seven
24:43
days that's 35 minutes right
24:45
it's much better than doing it for 35
24:46
minutes on the on sundays
24:48
much better yeah because i'm starting to
24:51
build a habit
24:52
and so one of the ways that you can work
24:53
with habits is to trick yourself and use
24:56
these things called mini habits
24:58
so one of the reasons that people don't
25:00
change behavior
25:01
is it looks too big meditation the dalai
25:05
lama does two hours a day well who's
25:07
going to do that right
25:09
who has time he gets up at four
25:11
meditates for an hour
25:13
reads the newspapers for two or three
25:14
hours and goes and meditates again i
25:16
don't even know
25:17
right so we can't do that but if we say
25:20
how many of you could spend a minute a
25:21
day
25:23
or five minutes a day we could right we
25:26
could find that
25:28
on the train or in an elevator in the
25:30
shower or whatever we can find
25:32
that sort of time by doing that you
25:34
begin to build up habits
25:36
and so this concept is called mini
25:37
habits so that's a good way
25:39
another way of changing habits is doing
25:42
something like a 30-day challenge
25:44
so this is pretty cool right
25:47
a lot of us don't change because you
25:49
think oh my god i have to do this for
25:50
the rest of my life
25:51
right try for 30 days play a little game
25:54
with yourself
25:56
could i change x for 30 days i've done
25:59
it with walking for example
26:01
uh i'm going to walk for 30 minutes a
26:03
day no matter what
26:05
and you know in colorado i live at uh
26:08
3000 meters or 2000 meters you know gets
26:11
pretty cold some days
26:12
i got home at 11 o'clock at night but i
26:14
was in this 30 day challenge so i went
26:16
out and walked for half an hour
26:17
and whatever you know it's no big deal
26:20
so by doing that it doesn't feel like a
26:22
life sentence but you still get the
26:23
benefit
26:25
so that's another trick to change habits
26:28
habits are sensitive to environmental
26:31
cues
26:32
so if you want to for example go out
26:34
walking and go out running
26:36
leave your trainers sneakers what do you
26:39
call them what do you call them in this
26:40
country
26:41
trainers sneakers shoes somewhere
26:43
training tennis shoes anyway
26:44
leave them uh on top of the television
26:49
so when you reach to turn on netflix you
26:51
think oh
26:52
you join tennis shoes you know what i
26:54
mean right some way or another you set
26:55
yourself a cue
26:57
that will promote the behavior that you
26:59
want to do
27:00
so you can do that
27:04
and it also works for mindsets
27:07
so when you're thinking about changing
27:09
your mind
27:10
you can also have a trigger when i think
27:13
x
27:15
i'm gonna shift my mind and do y
27:18
instead right so you can change habitual
27:22
patterns of thoughts by using
27:25
what's called implementation triggers
27:30
so designing behavioral change into
27:31
products this is one of these things
27:32
consultants love to do this
27:34
consultants love this stuff right they
27:36
put like an easy five-step process
27:38
diagram i don't mean pretend that it's
27:39
easy i don't mean to pretend it's linear
27:40
i don't mean to pretend it's
27:41
straightforward
27:42
i don't mean to pretend that there's all
27:43
the way to it they're all there is to it
27:45
but you want to be specific about the
27:47
behaviors you want to use mind space and
27:49
habits as checklists
27:51
to think about it you want to create
27:53
measures because one of the lovely
27:54
things about behaviors
27:55
is you can measure them yeah and you
27:58
want to learn
27:59
and reiterate
28:02
and i think this is really one of the
28:05
things that's exciting about half double
28:06
as you build behaviors into the start
28:09
so all of those other change models i
28:10
showed you
28:12
from the previous century from the
28:15
jurassic age
28:17
pre-half double and we should do that
28:20
actually we should have like instead of
28:21
anno domini
28:22
and bc we can have pre-half double and
28:25
after half double
28:26
it's a new specify
28:30
behaviors on the fart never ever assume
28:32
that you if you tell people something
28:34
no matter how persuasive and charismatic
28:36
you are
28:38
that you're going to change the behavior
28:39
never ever assume that
28:43
design them participatively so the only
28:45
sensible way to design behaviors
28:47
is to ask people who are going to have
28:49
to do it what sort of behaviors are
28:51
going to make the system work for you
28:52
we consultants with our knowledge
28:53
management machine with the new sierra
28:55
with the new crm system involve people
28:58
and help them co-design
29:01
this isn't cookbook stuff a lot of the
29:03
examples in mind space
29:04
are from the realm of public policy
29:08
they're measured they're evidence-based
29:11
they're research
29:12
based there's great case studies there
29:14
are fewer case studies in business
29:17
partly it's fun you get to be creative
29:21
and partly you have to do some of the
29:22
heavy lifting yourself you can't open a
29:24
cookbook and go
29:25
okay i want x behavior and so that means
29:28
i should do y
29:29
no not that easy
29:33
so you'll have to do some digging around
29:37
and then that's all for me mangataka
29:39
thank you stay here
